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Eugine_Nier comments on Open Thread February 25 - March 3 - Less Wrong
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Well Paul Graham has built quite a successful incubator apparently largely based on his ability to predict success of start-ups based on a half-hour interview.
Besides what gwern said, Paul Graham is a successful VC. The expected income of VCs is very different from the expected income of startup founders.
My point is that this is evidence that start-up success depends on ability more than luck.
I think both ability and luck are necessary but not sufficient (well, reasonable amounts of luck :-D).
I'm not sure how much the interviews add compared to the Y Combinator model of investing in a lot of startups very early on at unusually favorable terms, integrating with Hacker News, and building a YC community with alumni & new angels. (As far as the latter goes, you can ask AngryParsley why he went into YC for Floobits: it wasn't because he needed their cash.)