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Eugine_Nier comments on Open Thread February 25 - March 3 - Less Wrong
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Not from the expected-income point of view (we're not considering car dealerships and franchise eateries startups, right?).
Oh, dear. "I'm so smart that normal rules don't apply to me". What could possibly go wrong..?
Well Paul Graham has built quite a successful incubator apparently largely based on his ability to predict success of start-ups based on a half-hour interview.
Besides what gwern said, Paul Graham is a successful VC. The expected income of VCs is very different from the expected income of startup founders.
My point is that this is evidence that start-up success depends on ability more than luck.
I think both ability and luck are necessary but not sufficient (well, reasonable amounts of luck :-D).
I'm not sure how much the interviews add compared to the Y Combinator model of investing in a lot of startups very early on at unusually favorable terms, integrating with Hacker News, and building a YC community with alumni & new angels. (As far as the latter goes, you can ask AngryParsley why he went into YC for Floobits: it wasn't because he needed their cash.)