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James_Miller comments on Link: Poking the Bear (Podcast) - Less Wrong
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I will bet you $20 U.S. (mine) vs $100 (yours) that Russian tanks will be involved in combat in the Ukraine within 60 days. So in 60 days I will pay you $20 if I lose the bet, but you pay me $100 if I win. Agreed?
I'll agree to those terms. I'd also take a 1/5th chance of $100 in lieu of $20 (e.g. you pay $100 if no Russian tanks have been involved in combat in the Ukraine by April 28th and the first digit after the decimal of the S&P 500 is a 0 or 5 at close that day).
Agreed with the following two clarifications. (1) By first digit I assume we mean to the left of the decimal point so if the S&P 500 is 1864.33 at close the first digit is a 4 and (2) and by Russian tanks we mean tanks operated by Russian troops not a tank built in Russia.
You guys left one possible loophole: Does "tanks will be involved in combat" mean actually firing shells?
I would say "no" but there does have to be fighting because of the word "combat".
I think it's a tie since tanks were not involved in combat (although they did invade) but the S&P 500 Index closed at 1,869.43 on April 28th.
Agreed. In retrospect, I think I was a little bit overconfident.
How do you define Ukraine? Does it include the Crimean peninsula?
Yes, everything currently considered part of the country Ukraine.
Looks like a hot war in the Ukraine is starting.
Even worse, Russia might be planning to attack a NATO country.
http://jalopnik.com/this-helicopter-armada-in-ukraine-is-absolutely-terrify-1533287720
edit:
#Pentagon confirms massive (#Russian) sea&air push into #Crimea.Other sources:12 aircraft,up to 2000 airborne troops involved -@2kdei |PR
edit: thanks!
You might want to escape the # by placing a backslash right before it.
I have no interest in betting money on political developments, even though I think I'd likely win in this case. Just enter your prediction in http://predictionbook.com.