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solipsist comments on Link: Poking the Bear (Podcast) - Less Wrong
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I'll agree to those terms. I'd also take a 1/5th chance of $100 in lieu of $20 (e.g. you pay $100 if no Russian tanks have been involved in combat in the Ukraine by April 28th and the first digit after the decimal of the S&P 500 is a 0 or 5 at close that day).
Agreed with the following two clarifications. (1) By first digit I assume we mean to the left of the decimal point so if the S&P 500 is 1864.33 at close the first digit is a 4 and (2) and by Russian tanks we mean tanks operated by Russian troops not a tank built in Russia.
You guys left one possible loophole: Does "tanks will be involved in combat" mean actually firing shells?
I would say "no" but there does have to be fighting because of the word "combat".
I think it's a tie since tanks were not involved in combat (although they did invade) but the S&P 500 Index closed at 1,869.43 on April 28th.
Agreed. In retrospect, I think I was a little bit overconfident.