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James_Miller comments on Link: Poking the Bear (Podcast) - Less Wrong
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I'll agree to those terms. I'd also take a 1/5th chance of $100 in lieu of $20 (e.g. you pay $100 if no Russian tanks have been involved in combat in the Ukraine by April 28th and the first digit after the decimal of the S&P 500 is a 0 or 5 at close that day).
I think it's a tie since tanks were not involved in combat (although they did invade) but the S&P 500 Index closed at 1,869.43 on April 28th.
Agreed. In retrospect, I think I was a little bit overconfident.