JGWeissman comments on Polling Thread - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Gunnar_Zarncke 01 March 2014 11:57PM

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Comment author: Coscott 03 March 2014 07:02:05PM *  1 point [-]

You and a friend are will go through the following procedure. You are not allowed to communicate before hand.

1: Your friend names a card from a 52 card deck.

2: You look at the top card of the deck.

3: You tell your friend the suit of the top card of the deck. (You are allowed to lie, but you must name a suit)

4: Your friend bets on a card, and wins if the top card matches the card he bet on. Your friend puts in 1 dollar, and receives 20 dollars if he guesses correctly. If your friend bets on the same card that he named originally, he may double the bet, putting in 2 dollars, and receiving 40 dollars if he guesses correctly. The bet is between your friend and a stranger.

Imagine you are playing this game, and your friend names "seven of diamonds," and the top card is "three of diamonds." When you tell your friend the suit, do you lie? (By lie, I mean name a suit other than diamonds)

Submitting...

Comment author: JGWeissman 03 March 2014 07:51:03PM 1 point [-]

By saying "clubs", I communicate the message that my friend would be better off betting $1 on a random club than $2 on the seven of diamonds, (or betting $1 on a random heart or spade), which is true, so I don't really consider that lying.

If, less conveniently, my friend takes what I see to literally mean the suit of the top card, but I still can get them to not bet $2 on the wrong card, then I bite the bullet and lie.

Comment author: Coscott 03 March 2014 08:08:23PM 0 points [-]

I expect most people here would bite that bullet, but I am not sure if everyone here will. "Never Lie" seems like a rather convenient Schelling Fence.

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