Will_Newsome comments on What Evidence Filtered Evidence? - Less Wrong
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Which means that (when Monty's algorithm isn't given or when there's uncertainty about how accurate the problem statement is) people who don't switch are making a very defensible choice by the laws of decision theory. For what plausible reason would he (open a door and) offer to let you switch unless he stood to gain if you did? (Answer: To trick you on the meta level, of course.)