I think it is correct (>70%), but also unimportant (>95%). Even with a revealed identity, Satoshi remains reclusive and private, and I believe he will continue to avoid public recognition (>80%). This is purely from a few handfuls of background information beforehand, and then the article itself.
I am not sure where updating will come into this.
Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.
This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!
So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?