Dorian Nakamoto isn't wealthy
That would actually be a point against: since now you need to explain how Satoshi could have cashed out a lot of coins early (at low prices) or any coins recently (at high prices), without anyone noticing, keeping in mind people (such as myself) actively are watching early coin-rewards and especially the ones tagged as the Satoshi miner by Sergio's research.
Not quite what I meant. The fact that Satoshi didn't sell many of the early coins, and didn't mix them around enough to keep the option open either, is evidence that he felt financially secure without them. That suggests that he had money already, from a source other than Bitcoin - which, for a skilled programmer, has a high prior already.
Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.
This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!
So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?