Not quite what I meant. The fact that Satoshi didn't sell many of the early coins, and didn't mix them around enough to keep the option open either, is evidence that he felt financially secure without them. That suggests that he had money already, from a source other than Bitcoin - which, for a skilled programmer, has a high prior already.
Ah, that's a good point. Yes, I agree with you that I expect Satoshi to be well off based on his other activities (or alternately, have a good excuse for being poor, like being a grad student).
Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.
This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!
So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?