In case you haven't seen it, here's a great piece about Hal Finney, which includes the strongest arguments I've seen so far about why he's not Satoshi (despite the author's initial suspicions):
Yes, I too agree Finney is less likely to be Satoshi than is commonly assumed. Mostly based on the early emails to each other - it beggars belief that Satoshi would set up two accounts, sockpuppet them talking to each other, find crashing bugs as one account and report it with debug logs to the other account, etc. Satoshi was trying to be pseudonymous, but nothing suggests he was so paranoid that he would resort to such ruses and stratagems that early on.
Many of you here have likely heard of Bitcoin, and maybe know something about it.
Earlier today, a story broke that a reporter had apparently tracked down the real Satoshi Nakamoto, infamous creator of the Bitcoin protocol.
This seems like an excellent opportunity to practice our Bayesian updating!
So, how likely do you think it is that this man is the founder of Bitcoin? What do you believe and why?