Thanks so much for your thorough reply. I really, really appreciate it!
Glad to help (if I am actually helping)! I find this fun.
Can environmentalism be a terminal goal? What about efficiency in general?
Of course, anything can be a terminal goal :). But consider how strong a statement it is to say that something is a terminal goal. That it has intrinsic value. As for environmentalism, would the environment matter if there was no one on earth to experience it? If not, it makes me think that environmentalism matters to the extent that it makes peoples lives better, and thus would be an instrumental goal.
Some people would respond to what I just said by saying something along the lines of "Of course it wouldn't matter if no one was on earth, but don't be ridiculous - be practical." My response to that is that in discussing things like this, it's important to be very precise with what you say. Because a lot of disagreement comes from arguing over semantics, which comes from bad communication.
I have absolutely no idea if this happiness with a leisurely lifestyle is something I can maintain or not.
The good thing is that a) this is a testable question that you'll get more and more evidence for as time progresses, and b) you can easily adjust the extent to which you pursue ambitions. It's not like you have to decide once and for all now (not to imply you don't know that, just saying).
My guess is that you will be able to maintain your happiness.
a) The happiness set point theory seems rather accurate (my reason for thinking this is mostly based on anecdotal evidence, not on reading much into the research).
b) Anecdotally, it also seems to me that the "need to be ambitious" is also pretty set in stone. Ie. You know if you're one of those people, and you know somewhat early in life. I don't know of many 40 year olds who suddenly develop an irresistible urge to do something ambitious. Note: in HPMOR the distinction between having ambition and being ambitious is made.
Maybe my lack of ambition was just from the way I was raised (in my family, we all bragged about acing tests with no outside study, about never having homework, about never doing assigned readings, about skipping class to hang out in the rec room, etc.. kinda pathetic, in hindsight).
That's amazing! I hated school and did a lot of rebellious things out of spite. Back to that alternate universe again... I wish my family was like that. One of my favorite rebellious things was that I refused to do some AP Micro project at the end of the year because I was already in college, getting a zero would only bring my grade from an A to a B, and economics is all about incentives, so it just felt too right to boycott the project on those grounds.
Probability of success? Good question. No idea, again this is very fuzzy since I don't even know where I would start; it's just not something I've thought about much.
With respect, this seems like an ugh field (a more specific instance of what you said was a broader ugh field). P(success) seems like it plays a big role in whether or not you decide to be ambitious. I'm not sure though - if you thought you had a, say >50% chance of having a big impact on the world, would you then want to be ambitious?
If P(success) does indeed play a big role, I think it'd be a good idea to take an idea and give a real honest effort at seeing if you could "solve the puzzle". Try to break it down into it's components. What would have to happen in order for you to succeed? Break those components down further and ask the same question, etc. Honestly, try doing this for 5-10 ideas.
After doing this, you should have a much better sense of what P(success) is. Which has two benefits: 1) increases the chances you make the right decision as to whether or not to be ambitious, 2) will make you feel more confident in your decision, and perhaps more "at peace"/less likely to feel any sort of guilt.
How altruistic am I, really? I don't know. I'm still going through the repercussions of my deconversion. Right now, the amount of caring I have for people in the world is relative to the amount I used to have as a Christian.
Very understandable.
Now that eternity/an afterlife is out of the picture for me
WOAH!!! Slow down there :)
I really don't want to die and am really hoping that I won't have to. And I plan on doing what I can to avoid it. A lot of people here think similarly, and there seems to be reason to hope.
A lot of people are hopeful that we might not have to die. There's the possibility of cryonics working out, anti-aging research, AI (<- a very clear introduction to AI if you don't know much about it). And there's even the possibility that we have no clue how consciousness really works and that there is indeed an afterlife. Note that I used the word possible. I don't know how probable these things are. This talks a bit about it.
Maybe there's a subconscious tendency to go along with the mainstream views on LW just because almost everyone here is so good at thinking and rational people usually tend to agree with other rational people.
I think there is. But note the distinctions between types of conformity. Part of it is sensible. The fact that other smart people believe something to be true is evidence that it's true (in that it increases the likelihood that it's true). And so it makes sense to adjust your beliefs accordingly. The real question is "how much should you adjust your beliefs".
As for the bad types of conformity, I think it exists here too. My judgement is that it's moderately less than average.
It's tempting to just trust that the ideas around here are all things I can agree with and understand, just because I've agreed with almost everything I've read so far
I can definitely empathize with that. Discovering LW was one of the best things that's ever happened to me. I had that same sense of agreeing with almost everything I was reading, and it was really really nice to hear the thoughts articulated so well.
I guess I just have to be cautious, keep putting in the effort of thinking for myself, and remember that LW is a (wonderful) resource, not a bible.
Always :)
You know it's funny, I've never thought about this before, but I actually would like for the earth to stay beautiful, even if there are no humans around to enjoy it. Feeling such a strong attachment to the earth makes me think that I empathize a bit too much with Kaczynski... which got me thinking about psychopathic tendencies, and after looking them up, I realized I borderline have many of them. I'm not really too worried about myself, but this got me back to morality again. Psychopaths are probably quite rational about pursuing their own personal termina...
This was originally a comment to VipulNaik's recent indagations about the academic lifestyle versus the job lifestyle. Instead of calling it lifestyle he called them career options, but I'm taking a different emphasis here on purpose.
Due to information hazards risks, I recommend that Effective Altruists who are still wavering back and forth do not read this. Spoiler EA alert.
I'd just like to provide a cultural difference information that I have consistently noted between Americans and Brazilians which seems relevant here.
To have a job and work in the US is taken as a *de facto* biological need. It is as abnormal for an American, in my experience, to consider not working, as it is to consider not breathing, or not eating. It just doesn't cross people's minds.
If anyone has insight above and beyond "Protestant ethics and the spirit of capitalism" let me know about it, I've been waiting for the "why?" for years.
So yeah, let me remind people that you can spend years and years not working. that not getting a job isn't going to kill you or make you less healthy, that ultravagabonding is possible and feasible and many do it for over six months a year, that I have a friend who lives as the boyfriend of his sponsor's wife in a triad and somehow never worked a day in his life (the husband of the triad pays it all, both men are straight). That I've hosted an Argentinian who left graduate economics for two years to randomly travel the world, ended up in Rome and passed by here in his way back, through couchsurfing. That Puneet Sahani has been well over two years travelling the world with no money and an Indian passport now. I've also hosted a lovely estonian gentleman who works on computers 4 months a year in London to earn pounds, and spends eight months a year getting to know countries while learning their culture etc... Brazil was his third country.
Oh, and never forget the Uruguay couple I just met at a dance festival who have been travelling as hippies around and around South America for 5 years now, and showed no sign of owning more than 500 dollars worth of stuff.
Also in case you'd like to live in a paradise valley taking Santo Daime (a religious ritual with DMT) about twice a week, you can do it with a salary of aproximatelly 500 dollars per month in Vale do Gamarra, where I just spent carnival, that is what the guy who drove us back did. Given Brazilian or Turkish returns on investment, that would cost you 50 000 bucks in case you refused to work within the land itself for the 500.
Oh, I forgot to mention that though it certainly makes you unable to do expensive stuff, thus removing the paradox of choice and part of your existential angst from you (uhuu less choices!), there is nearly no detraction in status from not having a job. In fact, during these years in which I was either being an EA and directing an NGO, or studying on my own, or doing a Masters (which, let's agree is not very time consuming) my status has increased steadily, and many opportunities would have been lost if I had a job that wouldn't let me move freely. Things like being invited as Visiting Scholar to Singularity Institute, like giving a TED talk, like directing IERFH, and like spending a month working at FHI with Bostrom, Sandberg, and the classic Lesswrong poster Stuart Armstrong.
So when thinking about what to do with you future my dear fellow Americans, please, at least consider not getting a job. At least admit what everyone knows from the bottom of their hearts, that jobs are abundant for high IQ people (specially you my programmer lurker readers.... I know you are there...and you native English speakers, I can see you there, unnecessarily worrying about your earning potential).
A job is truly an instrumental goal, and your terminal goals certainly do have chains of causation leading to them that do not contain a job for 330 days a year. Unless you are a workaholic who experiences flow in virtue of pursuing instrumental goals. Then please, work all day long, donate as much as you can, and may your life be awesome!