From this month's Open Thread, Stirling Westrup asks:
I second the question. My own recommendations will be found in the comments.
From this month's Open Thread, Stirling Westrup asks:
I second the question. My own recommendations will be found in the comments.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a really good writer on this subject, especially with regards to the financial markets. You can either read the Black Swan or Fooled by Randomness (or both, but there is a lot of overlap, personally I think Fooled by Randomness is a better read, although the ideas in the Black Swan are a little more developed).
If you want to get technical, my textbook: Jay Devore, Probability and Statistics for the Engineering and Sciences is an excellent treatment of the subject and begins at the most basic level and covers many advance subjects. I think any econometrics textbook is good too, as the skills you learn apply not just to economic time series but in general when thinking about how to synthesize observed data into a descriptive model.
There is much mention in this blog about Bayesian rationality, or the use of Bayes' methods in decision making. Now, I studied Bayes conditional probabilities in Statistics class in University many years ago, but my knowledge of the theory ends there. Can you recommend any good books on the subject?
In fact, do you folks have a recommended reading list (other than this blog, of course!) for those trying to identify and overcome their own biases?