From this month's Open Thread, Stirling Westrup asks:
I second the question. My own recommendations will be found in the comments.
From this month's Open Thread, Stirling Westrup asks:
I second the question. My own recommendations will be found in the comments.
I thought "Inevitable Illusions" was terrible. Full of smugness of the "ha ha, look how stupid you are" variety, and (appropriately, I guess) vitiated by reasoning errors of its own. (See a brief analysis of one glaring example; those who are fluent with probability calculations will find it a bit laborious.)
There is much mention in this blog about Bayesian rationality, or the use of Bayes' methods in decision making. Now, I studied Bayes conditional probabilities in Statistics class in University many years ago, but my knowledge of the theory ends there. Can you recommend any good books on the subject?
In fact, do you folks have a recommended reading list (other than this blog, of course!) for those trying to identify and overcome their own biases?