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MattG comments on Open thread, 11-17 March 2014 - Less Wrong
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But you do need to assume that somehow you can predict novel events based on previous data
Just going back to my stock market example, what variables would I have calibrated on to predict 9/11 and it's effects on the stock market?
I'm not arguing that you can predict the stock market. What you can do is calibrate yourself enough to see that it's frequently doing things that you didn't predict.