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Error comments on Irrationality Game III - Less Wrong
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Comments (204)
I still think you're overconfident, so upvoting, but the justification is convincing enough to make me update from near-zero to something noticeably above zero. I never thought of it quite that way.
Translate it to "In x% of new non-urban houses, there are options better than flush toilets." My confidence in my confidence assignment isn't very high yet though, so I am quite open to being overconfident.
And obviously both lists are non-exhaustive.