Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Irrationality Game III - Less Wrong

11 Post author: CellBioGuy 12 March 2014 01:51PM

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Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 13 March 2014 07:47:54AM 4 points [-]

Irrationality game:

Nice idea. This way I can safely test whether the Baseline of my opinion on LW topics is as contrarian as I think.

My proposition:

On The Simulation Argument I go for "(1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage" (80%)

Correspondingly on The Great Filter I go for failure to reach "9. Colonization explosion" (80%).

This is not because I think that humanity is going to self-annihilate soon (though this is a possibility).

Comment author: Squark 14 March 2014 12:25:17PM 0 points [-]

What is the extinction scenario you have in mind?

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 14 March 2014 05:28:22PM 0 points [-]

Hopefully no extinction during the next many thousends of years. Which extinction afterwards is difficult to predict.

As I shortly argued in my baseline post I think that posthuman state is unlikely due to thermodynamics/complexity constraints.