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Eugine_Nier comments on Irrationality Game III - Less Wrong
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I think the probability of a nuclear war or bio-engineered plague is higher than 5%.
I think there's a good chance that a nuclear war would kill less than 90% of the population, though.
(But now that I think about it, even the ones it doesn't kill straight away will be much less likely to live to 120 than they otherwise would.)