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ThisSpaceAvailable comments on Irrationality Game III - Less Wrong
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I upvoted, mostly because of how low the estimate of the second claim was. I'm a bit more confident than that. The other factor was the "human-enough-way" phrasing.
It was a little difficult to choose how to vote because you put two fairly distinct claims in one post.
My understanding is that if your probability estimate is higher than the one given, you're supposed to downvote.
That is not my understanding.