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chaosmage comments on FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver) rolls out new blog today, and attempts to teach people Bayes' rule. - Less Wrong
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Comments (10)
It is not the odds the headline is true, nor the odds the study is correct, but only the odds the study supports the headline. For that, I don't find his rule of thumb inappropriate.
No. The odds that the study supports the headline in the second example are 1/16. The formula he gives is
(final opinion on headline) = (initial gut feeling) * (study support for headline)
where the latter two are odds ratios. From context, "final opinion on headline" is pretty clearly supposed to be "opinion on whether the headline is true."