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benkuhn comments on FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver) rolls out new blog today, and attempts to teach people Bayes' rule. - Less Wrong
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Yes, that's what I meant by "very rare:" there are situations where it happens, like the model that you gave, but I don't think ones that happen in real life likely to contribute a very large effect. You need really insane publication bias to get a large effect there.