Gwern wrote "(This sounds like the usual generalizing problem: "I don't think that sounds insanely fun and awesome, so obviously no teenager can find it that rewarding and by the previous logic, these teenagers must be making extremely biased assessments of risk; they should stop that. Also, these teens should just stop laying in bed all morning and staying up all night." You are a respectable sober adult, I should not be surprised to learn.)"

Gwern, you stated the above ad hominem, which I find insulting, regardless of whether you meant it as such. You implied that I was thinking such things - both the words AND the method aren't conducive to civil discussion, hence I responded with less civility than I would have preferred. You attacked my character as a means of dismissing my discussion, it's a low tactic and one I didn't expect from LW, it is indeed the typical internet trash talk I mentioned.

My interpretation of the anecdote reveals that the anecdote doesn't necessarily support your argument, whilst the anecdote also doesn't necessarily support the remainder of the article. It's quite clear that the driver didn't overestimate the risks for he was busted for reckless driving. The charges of reckless driving were made by an expert, on the scene - not by either you, me or anyone else "viewing" the incident in text some time later. I maintain that the police officer is a better judge of the event than either the driver or you or I, hence it is more likely that it was in fact reckless driving than it wasn't reckless driving. Further since there is no mention of a passenger in the car, and the tone of the article leads me to believe that the author would have mentioned a passenger since the driver would have been risking someone else's life - something of note - we can minimize the notion of peer induced reward as no one was watching. I say minimize, not discount, for no doubt the driver will tell his peers and perhaps gain some status in the storytelling.

With regards to my "failure to deal at all seriously...", I feel I deal with the issue of teenage overconfidence quite seriously, for I acknowledge that teenagers do undertake risky behaviour, and that (studies mentioned in the article) show that they perceive the rewards outweigh the risk. It is quite clear that in perceiving their rewards with such a high (subjective/personal) value, many of them have indeed made an error for one third teenager deaths are in car accidents. One should consider if death, both the risk of it and the actual occurrence of it is truly a fair price to pay for driving fast (or under the influence of alcohol).

With regards to the intention to be immature, I have no knowledge of your intentions - only the observation that attacking my character without addressing the substance of my argument is an immature act.

Gwern wrote "Your precautions do not eliminate the risk (do police officers not move?), and further, they are non sequiturs: listing possible precautions do not prove or disprove anything about teenegers' risk perceptions and receiver rewards, neither their elevation or reduction." The precautions aren't necessarily designed to eliminate the risk, though they may do so, they will however mitigate various risks, including chance of getting caught. I assume the teenager wanted to both drive the speed run and not receive a fine for doing so. That the precaution of a pre-drive of the route didn't occur supports my contention that the teenager did not overestimate the risks, in fact underestimated that risk for he was caught. With regards to rebuttal that a police officer could move, I think it's reasonable to conclude that if during a pre-drive the police officer is observed in the location it's too risky a time for the speed run, whilst if the police officer isn't observed then one has done some work in minimizing the risk of being caught.

We might consider a pre-drive of the route as an expense which made the reward vs investment unfavourable, this would reveal that the perceived reward is not so high as to overcome some (amount) of minutes of the teenagers time. Something to consider, I'd appreciate your input on that line of reasoning.

David Dobbs presents an argument that teenagers perception of reward enables their risky behaviour. I believe that argument is congruent with my original statement "In my experience teenagers [are] indeed overconfident about their own decision making ability." Perhaps I should have said, In my experience some teenagers are... to be more appropriately pedantic.