gwern comments on We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think - Less Wrong
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And how does one judge when the reward is outweighed? Hm, that wouldn't be subjective would it...?
Never reason from a price change. Are teenagers overconfident about how much daytime sleep they need, and their circadian rhythm shifts due to them getting "better at balancing impulse, desire, goals, self-interest, rules, ethics, and even altruism, generating behavior that is more complex and, sometimes at least, more sensible"?
This practically demonstrates the opposite: that the reward is the important part! What rewards do experimenters usually offer? Pretty lousy ones. Why is it surprising that teens might not work as hard as conscientious saps - I mean, mature adults. (I am reminded of how money rewards can improve IQ test performance by half a standard deviation or so.) This is like the usual criticism of the PISA test scores: of course Americans will underperform, since not a single one of the test-takers cares about what score they get. Incentives matter, which is what I've been saying all along.
Wow. So your explanation for a clear-cut reward link is... they get distracted and can't estimate risk as accurately.