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SaidAchmiz comments on To what extent does improved rationality lead to effective altruism? - Less Wrong
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Re: your response to point 1: again, the options in question are probability distributions over outcomes. The question is not one of your goals being 50% fulfilled or 51% fulfilled, but, e.g., a 51% probability of your goals being 100% fulfilled vs., a 95% probability of your goals being 50% fulfilled. (Numbers not significant; only intended for illustrative purposes.)
"Risk avoidance" and "value" are not synonyms. I don't know why you would say that. I suspect one or both of us is seriously misunderstanding the other.
Re: point #2: I don't have the time right now, but sometime over the next couple of days I should have some time and then I'll gladly outline Dawes' argument for you. (I'll post a sibling comment.)
If I'm talking about a goal actually being 50% fulfilled, then it is.
Really?
I consider risk to be the possibility of losing or not gaining (essentially the same) something of value. I don't know much about economics, but if somebody could help avoid that, would people be willing to pay for such a service?
If I'm terrified of spiders, then that is something that must be reflected in my utility function, right? My payoff from being close to a spider is less than otherwise.
That would be very kind :) No need to hurry.