Thanks very much for the taking the time to explain this.
It seems like the argument (very crudely) is that, "if I lose this game, that's it, I won't get a chance to play again, which makes this game a bad option." If so, again, I wonder if our measure of utility has been properly calibrated.
It seems to me like the expected utility of option B, where I might get kicked out of the game, is lower than the expected utility of option A, where this is impossible. Your example of insurance may not be a good one, as one insures against financial loss, but money is not identical to utility.
Nonetheless, those exponential distributions make a very interesting argument.
I'm not entirely sure, I need to mull it over a bit more.
Thanks again, I appreciate it.
Just a brief comment: the argument is not predicated on being "kicked out" of the game. We're not assuming that even the lowest-utility outcomes cause you to no longer be able to continue "playing". We're merely saying that they are significantly worse than average.
It's been claimed that increasing rationality increases effective altruism. I think that this is true, but the effect size is unclear to me, so it seems worth exploring how strong the evidence for it is. I've offered some general considerations below, followed by a description of my own experience. I'd very much welcome thoughts on the effect that rationality has had on your own altruistic activities (and any other relevant thoughts).
The 2013 LW Survey found that 28.6% of respondents identified as effective altruists. This rate is much higher than the rate in the general population (even after controlling for intelligence), and because LW is distinguished by virtue of being a community focused on rationality, one might be led to the conclusion that increasing rationality increases effective altruism. But there are a number of possible confounding factors:
So it's helpful to look beyond the observed correlation and think about the hypothetical causal pathways between increased rationality and increased effective altruism.
The above claim can be broken into several subclaims (any or all of which may be intended):
Claim 1: When people are more rational, they're more likely to pick their altruistic endeavors that they engage in with a view toward maximizing utilitarian expected value.
Claim 2: When people are more rational, they're more likely to succeed in their altruistic endeavors.
Claim 3: Being more rational strengthens people's altruistic motivation.
Claim 1: "When people are more rational, they're more likely to pick their altruistic endeavors that they engage in with a view toward maximizing utilitarian expected value."
Some elements of effective altruism thinking are:
Claim 2: "When people are more rational, they're more likely to succeed in their altruistic endeavors."
If "rationality" is taken to be "instrumental rationality" then this is tautologically true, so the relevant sense of "rationality" here is "epistemic."
Claim 3: "Being more rational strengthens people's altruistic motivation."
Putting it all together
The considerations above point in the direction of increased rationality of a population only slightly (if at all?) increasing the effective altruism at the 50th percentile of the population, but increasing the effective altruism at higher percentiles more, with the skewing becoming more and more extreme the further up one goes. This is in parallel with, e.g. the effect of height on income.
My own experience
In A personal history of involvement with effective altruism I give some relevant autobiographical information. Summarizing and elaborating a bit:
How about you?