I really do want to emphasize that if you assume that "losing" (i.e. encountering an outcome with a utility value on the low end of the scale) has some additional effects, whether that be "losing takes you out of the game", or "losing makes it harder to keep playing", or whatever, then you are modifying the scenario, in a critical way. You are, in effect, stipulating that that outcome actually has a lower utility than it's stated to have.
I want to urge you to take those graphs literally, with the x-axis being Utility, not money, or "utility but without taking into account secondary effects", or anything like that. Whatever the actual utility of an outcome is, after everything is accounted for — that's what determines that outcome's position on the graph's x-axis. (Edit: And it's crucial that the expectation of the two distributions is the same. If you find yourself concluding that the expectations are actually different, then you are misinterpreting the graphs, and should re-examine your assumptions; or else suitably modify the graphs to match your assumptions, such that the expectations are the same, and then re-evaluate.)
This is not a Pascal's Wager argument. The low-utility outcomes aren't assumed to be "infinitely" bad, or somehow massively, disproportionately, unrealistically bad; they're just... bad. (I don't want to get into the realm of offering up examples of bad things, because people's lives are different and personal value scales are not absolute, but I hope that I've been able to clarify things at least a bit.)
If you assume.... [y]ou are, in effect, stipulating that that outcome actually has a lower utility than it's stated to have.
Thanks, that focuses the argument for me a bit.
So if we assume those curves represent actual utility functions, he seems to be saying that the shape of curve B, relative to A makes A better (because A is bounded in how bad it could be, but unbounded in how good it could be). But since the curves are supposed to quantify betterness, I am attracted to the conclusion that curve B hasn't been correctly drawn. If B is worse than A, how ...
It's been claimed that increasing rationality increases effective altruism. I think that this is true, but the effect size is unclear to me, so it seems worth exploring how strong the evidence for it is. I've offered some general considerations below, followed by a description of my own experience. I'd very much welcome thoughts on the effect that rationality has had on your own altruistic activities (and any other relevant thoughts).
The 2013 LW Survey found that 28.6% of respondents identified as effective altruists. This rate is much higher than the rate in the general population (even after controlling for intelligence), and because LW is distinguished by virtue of being a community focused on rationality, one might be led to the conclusion that increasing rationality increases effective altruism. But there are a number of possible confounding factors:
So it's helpful to look beyond the observed correlation and think about the hypothetical causal pathways between increased rationality and increased effective altruism.
The above claim can be broken into several subclaims (any or all of which may be intended):
Claim 1: When people are more rational, they're more likely to pick their altruistic endeavors that they engage in with a view toward maximizing utilitarian expected value.
Claim 2: When people are more rational, they're more likely to succeed in their altruistic endeavors.
Claim 3: Being more rational strengthens people's altruistic motivation.
Claim 1: "When people are more rational, they're more likely to pick their altruistic endeavors that they engage in with a view toward maximizing utilitarian expected value."
Some elements of effective altruism thinking are:
Claim 2: "When people are more rational, they're more likely to succeed in their altruistic endeavors."
If "rationality" is taken to be "instrumental rationality" then this is tautologically true, so the relevant sense of "rationality" here is "epistemic."
Claim 3: "Being more rational strengthens people's altruistic motivation."
Putting it all together
The considerations above point in the direction of increased rationality of a population only slightly (if at all?) increasing the effective altruism at the 50th percentile of the population, but increasing the effective altruism at higher percentiles more, with the skewing becoming more and more extreme the further up one goes. This is in parallel with, e.g. the effect of height on income.
My own experience
In A personal history of involvement with effective altruism I give some relevant autobiographical information. Summarizing and elaborating a bit:
How about you?