What? This has nothing to do with "privileged reference points". If I am [VNM-]rational, with utility function U, and you consider an alternative function $ = exp(U) (or an affine transformation thereof), I will appear to be risk averse with respect to $. This doesn't mean I am irrational, it means you don't have the correct utility function. And in this case, you can turn the wrong utility function into the right one by taking log($).
That is what I mean by "regular risk aversion".
It actually doesn't matter what the values are, because we know from prospect theory that people's preferences about risks can be reversed merely by framing gains as losses, or vice versa. No matter what shape the function has, it has to have some shape — it can't have one shape if you frame alternatives as gains but a different, opposite shape if you frame them as losses.
I know, they are graphs of P(U). Which is implicitly a graph of the composition of a probability function over outcomes with (the inverse of) a utility function.
True enough. I rounded your objection to the nearest misunderstanding, I think.
And I say that is assuming the conclusion.
Are you able to conceive of a utility function, or even a preference ordering, that does not give rise to this sort of preference over distributions? Even in rough terms? If so, I would like to hear it!
The core of Dawes' argument is not a mathematical one, to be sure (and it would be difficult to make it into a mathematical argument, without some sort of rigorous account of what sorts of outcome distribution shapes humans prefer, which in turn would presumably require substantial field data, at the very least). It's an argument from intuition: Dawes is saying, "Look, I prefer this sort of distribution of outcomes. [Implied: 'And so do other people.'] However, such a preference is irrational, according to the VNM axioms..." Your objection seems to be: "No, in fact, you have no such preference. You only think you do, because your are envisioning your utility function incorrectly." Is that a fair characterization?
Your talk of the utility function possibly being wrong makes me vaguely suspect a misunderstanding. It's likely I'm just misunderstanding you, however, so if you already know this, I apologize, but just in case:
If you have some set of preferences, then (assuming your preferences satisfy the axioms), we can construct a utility function (up to positive affine transformation). But having constructed this function — which is the only function you could possibly construct from that set of preferences (up to positive affine transformation) — you are not then free to say "oh, well, maybe this is the wrong utility function; maybe the right function is something else".
Of course you might instead be saying "well, we haven't actually constructed any actual utility function from any actual set of preferences; we're only imagining some vague, hypothetical utility function, and a vague hypothetical utility function certainly can be the wrong function". Fair enough, if so. However, I once again invite you to exhibit a utility function — or even a preference ordering — which does not give rise to a preference for less-negatively-skewed distributions.
Okay, which parts, specifically, are A, B and C, and how is it established that the agent is indifferent between A and B?
I'm afraid an answer to this part will have to wait until I have some free time to do some math.
It actually doesn't matter what the values are, because we know from prospect theory that people's preferences about risks can be reversed merely by framing gains as losses, or vice versa. No matter what shape the function has, it has to have some shape — it can't have one shape if you frame alternatives as gains but a different, opposite shape if you frame them as losses.
Yes, framing effects are irrational, I agree. I'm saying that the mere existence of risk aversion with respect to something does not demonstrate the presence of framing effects or any ...
It's been claimed that increasing rationality increases effective altruism. I think that this is true, but the effect size is unclear to me, so it seems worth exploring how strong the evidence for it is. I've offered some general considerations below, followed by a description of my own experience. I'd very much welcome thoughts on the effect that rationality has had on your own altruistic activities (and any other relevant thoughts).
The 2013 LW Survey found that 28.6% of respondents identified as effective altruists. This rate is much higher than the rate in the general population (even after controlling for intelligence), and because LW is distinguished by virtue of being a community focused on rationality, one might be led to the conclusion that increasing rationality increases effective altruism. But there are a number of possible confounding factors:
So it's helpful to look beyond the observed correlation and think about the hypothetical causal pathways between increased rationality and increased effective altruism.
The above claim can be broken into several subclaims (any or all of which may be intended):
Claim 1: When people are more rational, they're more likely to pick their altruistic endeavors that they engage in with a view toward maximizing utilitarian expected value.
Claim 2: When people are more rational, they're more likely to succeed in their altruistic endeavors.
Claim 3: Being more rational strengthens people's altruistic motivation.
Claim 1: "When people are more rational, they're more likely to pick their altruistic endeavors that they engage in with a view toward maximizing utilitarian expected value."
Some elements of effective altruism thinking are:
Claim 2: "When people are more rational, they're more likely to succeed in their altruistic endeavors."
If "rationality" is taken to be "instrumental rationality" then this is tautologically true, so the relevant sense of "rationality" here is "epistemic."
Claim 3: "Being more rational strengthens people's altruistic motivation."
Putting it all together
The considerations above point in the direction of increased rationality of a population only slightly (if at all?) increasing the effective altruism at the 50th percentile of the population, but increasing the effective altruism at higher percentiles more, with the skewing becoming more and more extreme the further up one goes. This is in parallel with, e.g. the effect of height on income.
My own experience
In A personal history of involvement with effective altruism I give some relevant autobiographical information. Summarizing and elaborating a bit:
How about you?