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Lumifer comments on Open thread, 24-30 March 2014 - Less Wrong
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So I've kind of formulated a possible way to use markets to predict quantiles. It seems quite flawed looking back on it two and a half weeks later, but I still think it might be an interesting line of inquiry.
You want options (as in, the financial market instruments called "options").
A sufficiently deep and wide options market basically provides most of the market-expected distribution of the future value of the underlying.
Thanks.