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Squark comments on Explanations for Less Wrong articles that you didn't understand - Less Wrong
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To me, (2) seems obviously false. You cannot predict what you're going to do before you decide what you're going to do. Therefore from an inside view, it seems to be unpredictable. But from an outside view, it is perfectly predictable.
I didn't say anything about predictability though. To my mind, prediction is not relevant to free will either way.