Most startups fail. That doesn't mean that starting a startup isn't an activity with high social value.
This depends on the extent to which a startup's success can be predicted in advance. My impression is that startup accelerators and venture capitalists do a reasonable job of predicting the set of startups that are likely to succeed. If a startup is in the threshold where a venture capitalist or accelerator considers them fundable, then yes, I think the activity has high social value in expectation, even if it ends up failing.
Ancient Greece had their version of the steam engine that was build to impress people. They didn't get economic value out of it, but the desire to build something to impress produced innovative thinking. A lot of innovation comes out of exploring a subject and simply trying to do something impressive.
I would be interested in a more detailed analysis of the value produced by innovative thinking in such historical contexts. At the same time, it seems the case to me that if there is a choice between something socially valuable and something that's not, then ceteris paribus, the more socially valuable thing is preferable.
In the context of people pursuing mainstream academics, they can be somewhat misguided about how well they understood material, but not too much.
That['s] not true.
There could certainly be a disconnect between their academic understanding and their ability to deal with real-world phenomena that apply that academic understanding. My comment was more about their level of understanding with the specific academic realm. That said, I do think many people don't learn even the material they are directly learning well enough. I've linked in the past to Eric Mazur's video on physics teaching as am example.
Steve is more likely to tackle problems differently then the people who already work in a field than Dave. To the extend that I want to make strategic choices that encourage innovation, I want more people with the kind of mindset that Steve has.
Do you have the impression that people who design marketing materials for nonprofits are in general more likely to think out of the box than people who can learn a complicated subject such as Japanese calligraphy?
I would be mildly inclined in Steve's favor based on what's known in the post, but I don't think the information as presented is strong enough to make a very strong case for one candidate.
The people I know anecdotally who did more of the Steve sort of stuff in high school don't seem to have accomplished notably more in adult life than the people who did more of the Dave sort of stuff. This could be due to small sample size or selection bias in my sample.
I would be interested in a more detailed analysis of the value produced by innovative thinking in such historical contexts. At the same time, it seems the case to me that if there is a choice between something socially valuable and something that's not, then ceteris paribus, the more socially valuable thing is preferable.
A good general book on the topic would innovation would be Jane Jacobs "The Economy of Cities".
When doing something very innovative it's often very hard to predict social impact. That's partly because it's innovative. You don...
Cal Newport (personal website, Wikipedia page) is a moderately well-known author of four books as well as a computer science researcher. I have read two of his four books: How To Become a Straight-A Student The Unconventional Strategies Real College Students Use to Score High While Studying Less and How to Be a High School Superstar: A Revolutionary Plan to Get into College by Standing Out (Without Burning Out). I'm particularly interested in his book on becoming a high school superstar. My interest arises as part of trying to figure out how people can better use their extracurricular activities to have more fun, learn more, and create more value for the world. As Jonah recently pointed out, choosing high school extracurricular activities could in principle have huge social value in addition to the private benefits. And as far as I know, Cal Newport is the only person who has given systematic advice on high school extracurriculars to a broad audience. He's been referenced many times on Less Wrong.
In this post, I'll briefly discuss his suggestions in the latter book and some of my broad philosophical disagreements. I'm eager to know about the experiences of people who've tried to implement Newport's advice (particularly that pertaining to extracurriculars, but also any of his other advice). First impressions of people who click through the links and read about Newport right now would also be appreciated. I intend to write on some of these issues in more detail in the coming days, though those later posts of mine will not be focused solely on what Newport has to say.
You might also be interested in the comments on this Facebook post of mine discussing Newport's ideas.
A quick summary of Newport's views
Newport's book advises high school students to pick an extracurricular activity and shine at it to the level that it impresses admissions officers (and others). He offers a three-step plan for highschoolers:
Newport is targeting high school students who want to get into their dream college. He's trying to get them to stop doing boring, depressing activities and instead do fun, creative, and useful stuff that both improves their short-run life (by making them more relaxed and less stressed) and impresses admissions officers.
Broad areas of agreement
Broad philosophical differences
Before getting into the nuts and bolts of what I think Newport gets right and wrong, I want to talk of some broad differences between Newport (as he presents himself) and me. A few things I find somewhat jarring in Newport's writing:
I'm curious to know what readers' main areas of disagreement with Newport are, and/or whether my listed areas of disagreement make sense to readers.
Cross-posted to Quora and the Cognito Mentoring blog.