gjm comments on How long will Alcor be around? - Less Wrong

30 Post author: Froolow 17 April 2014 03:28PM

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Comment author: NoSuchPlace 17 April 2014 10:59:36PM 7 points [-]

LW believes the average probability that cryonics will be successful for someone frozen today is 22.8%

This is a nitpick, but using average (I'm assuming that means arithmetic mean) is misleading since so long as at least a nonnegotiable proportion of people is answering in the double digits every answer below 1% is being treated as essentially the same, thus skewing towards higher probabilities of cryonics working.