Reminder! Although I haven't yet written abuot the general principle, the original Drake's Equation was bullshit. Things like this are even more bullshit since they exploit the human bias of assigning significant probabilities to everything elicited creating an unpacking bias where unpacked items are assigned much larger summed probabilities than the corresponding packed categories, meaning that the apparent probability of a conjunction goes down as you helpfully break it into more and more parts. By these means I could equally make the Moon landing appear impossible, just as I could make cryonics appear more and more likely by considering more and more disjunctive pathways to success. It also fails as probability theory because conditional dependency.

Again, general reminder: Across all cases not backed up by actual sampling, someone who offers to helpfully "elicit" a set of "conjunctive" probabilities and multiplies them together to get some low number, without considering any disjunctions, assuming conditional independence, and with no warnings about unpacking bias, is using a Fully General Counterargument that will underestimate the probability of anything. I have yet to see a good Breaking X Down for any X, unless X is a whole population (not a significant subsector of it) and the breakdown is just the actual data about X.