By these means I could equally make the Moon landing appear impossible

Viewed from which historical time?

just as I could make cryonics appear more and more likely by considering more and more disjunctive pathways to success.

This is not the first time you claim that, but AFAIK you never did. I'm skeptical that this is possible.

It also fails as probability theory because conditional dependency.

Unless you propose a plausible mechanism for two variables to be correlated, it is reasonable to assume that they are approximately independent, (Occam's razor, principle of maximum entropy, etc.). Also, correlations can be positive or negative.