Could the NSA, the security agency of the most powerful country on Earth, implement any of these schemes?
Er, yes, very easily.
Do you believe that if Obama were to ask the NSA to take over Russia, that the NSA could easily do so? If so, I am speechless.
Let's look at one of the most realistic schemes, creating a bioweapon. Yes, an organization like the NSA could probably design such a bioweapon. But how exactly could they take over the world that way?
They could either use the bioweapon to kill a huge number of people, or use it to blackmail the world into submission. I believe that the former would cause our technological civilization, on which the NSA depends, to collapse. So that would be stupid. The latter would maybe work for some time, until the rest of the world got together, in order to make a believable threat of mutual destruction.
I just don't see this to be a viable way to take over the world. At least not in such a way that you would gain actual control.
Now I can of course imagine a different world, in which it would be possible to gain control. Such as a world in which everyone important was using advanced brain implants. If these brain implants could be hacked, even the NSA could take over the world. That's a no-brainer.
I can also imagine a long-term plan. But those are very risky. The longer it takes, the higher the chance that your plan is revealed. Also, other AI's, with different, opposing utility-functions, will be employed. Some will be used to detect such plans.
Anyway, the assumption that an AI could understand human motivation, and become a skilled manipulator, is already too far-fetched for me to take seriously. People around here too often confound theory with practice. That all this might be physically possible does not prove that it is at all likely.
Do you believe that if Obama were to ask the NSA to take over Russia, that the NSA could easily do so?
No. I think the phrase "take over" is describing two very different scenarios if we compare "Obama trying to take over the world" and "a hypothetical hostile AI trying to take over the world". Obama has many human scruples and cares a lot about continued human survival, and specifically not just about the continued existence of the people of the USA but that they thrive. (Thankfully!)
I entirely agree that killing huge num...
Any scenario where advanced AI takes over the world requires some mechanism for an AI to leverage its position as ethereal resident of a computer somewhere into command over a lot of physical resources.
One classic story of how this could happen, from Eliezer:
You can do a lot of reasoning about AI takeover without any particular picture of how the world gets taken over. Nonetheless it would be nice to have an understanding of these possible routes. For preparation purposes, and also because a concrete, plausible pictures of doom are probably more motivating grounds for concern than abstract arguments.
So MIRI is interested in making a better list of possible concrete routes to AI taking over the world. And for this, we ask your assistance.
What are some other concrete AI takeover mechanisms? If an AI did not have a solution to the protein folding problem, and a DNA synthesis lab to write off to, what else might it do?
We would like suggestions that take an AI from being on an internet-connected computer to controlling substantial physical resources, or having substantial manufacturing ability.
We would especially like suggestions which are plausible given technology that normal scientists would expect in the next 15 years. So limited involvement of advanced nanotechnology and quantum computers would be appreciated.
We welcome partial suggestions, e.g. 'you can take control of a self-driving car from the internet - probably that could be useful in some schemes'.
Thank you!