Eh. It's not unusual for the government to get experts together and ask in a general sense for worst-case scenario possible disaster situations, with the intent of then working to reduce those risks.
Open-ended brainstorming about some potential AI risk scenarios that could happen in the near future might be useful, if the overall goal of MIRI is to reduce AI risk.
It's not unusual for the government to get experts together and ask in a general sense for worst-case scenario possible disaster situations
MIRI is not the government, LW is not a panel of experts, and such analyses generally start with a long list of things they are conditional on.
potential AI risk scenarios that could happen in the near future
No AI risk scenarios are going to happen in the near future.
Any scenario where advanced AI takes over the world requires some mechanism for an AI to leverage its position as ethereal resident of a computer somewhere into command over a lot of physical resources.
One classic story of how this could happen, from Eliezer:
You can do a lot of reasoning about AI takeover without any particular picture of how the world gets taken over. Nonetheless it would be nice to have an understanding of these possible routes. For preparation purposes, and also because a concrete, plausible pictures of doom are probably more motivating grounds for concern than abstract arguments.
So MIRI is interested in making a better list of possible concrete routes to AI taking over the world. And for this, we ask your assistance.
What are some other concrete AI takeover mechanisms? If an AI did not have a solution to the protein folding problem, and a DNA synthesis lab to write off to, what else might it do?
We would like suggestions that take an AI from being on an internet-connected computer to controlling substantial physical resources, or having substantial manufacturing ability.
We would especially like suggestions which are plausible given technology that normal scientists would expect in the next 15 years. So limited involvement of advanced nanotechnology and quantum computers would be appreciated.
We welcome partial suggestions, e.g. 'you can take control of a self-driving car from the internet - probably that could be useful in some schemes'.
Thank you!