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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Open Thread, April 27-May 4, 2014 - Less Wrong
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Agreed. But the speed of technology is estimated quite variably. And at least currently there are already ethical (read: memetic) constraints on applying technology to reproduction. So one could argue that the selection pressure is already doing its work.
Agreed. What do you propose? Assuming it too complicate to contemplate?
.... Yes. I mean, if you want to do a phd's worth of work, there are existing datasets one could mine - but the time horizon (since the legalization of birth control) is so short and the social context regarding reproduction has been shifting so heavily during this period that any predictions you make would end up being barely guesses. Fortunately, the subset of plausible futures in which this matters is absurdly small. The world would essentially have to enter into technological and social stasis for many thousands of years, and well. Uhm. No.
The marching morons has a lot to answer for, really, since variations on this is an idea that crops up like weed, and it is a pretty absurd scenario.
This is kind of an relevant argument because it means this - despite my non-political phrasing - is really a political topic because the opinion coalition effects are possibly much stronger than any solid predictions to be had. Or to rephrase this: Any actual biological effect is outweight by memetic effects.
I beg to differ.