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witzvo comments on Open Thread, April 27-May 4, 2014 - Less Wrong
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This is interesting. Can someone point me to documentation of the scoring? Thanks. (unless it's a CFAR secret or something)
100 × log2(Your probability of outcome/Previous Bet probability of outcome).. For example: if you updated a 50% house bet to 99% being correct would give you 98.55 "bits", while being wrong would give you -564.39
It's posted a couple of posts up. I had given no credence to the idea that it could be a CFAR secret.