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MrHen comments on Cached Thoughts - Less Wrong
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Okay, sure, that makes sense. I guess I have a weird middle range between, say, 45-55% that I just drop the belief from the probability matrix altogether because I am lazy and don't want to keep track of everything. The impact on my actions is negligible until well beyond this threshold.
An exception would be something in which I have done a lot of studying/research. The information, in this case, is extremely valuable. The belief still sits in the "Undecided" category, but I am not throwing out all that hard work.
Is this sort of thing completely sacrilegious toward the Way of Bayes? Note that 45-55% is just a range I made up on the spot. I don't actually have such a range defined; it just matches my behavior when translating me into Bayes.
No, that makes sense to me. You have essentially no information about whether a statement is more likely to be true or false at that percentage range.
Cool. I guess I never thought about what the distinction between active and passive disbelief would be for a Bayesian. It makes perfect sense now that I think about it... and it would have certainly made a whole bunch of discussions in my past a lot easier.
Pssh. Always learning something new, I guess.