tog comments on 2014 Survey of Effective Altruists - Less Wrong

27 Post author: tog 05 May 2014 02:32AM

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Comment author: tog 01 May 2014 02:38:30PM *  4 points [-]

[Thread for making and discussing predictions]

To expand on my predictions, I think that global poverty will be the most popular cause except among those who say they heard of EA through LessWrong (whose numbers I'll be interested to see). I also think that skepticism/atheism will be the other social movement with which most identify, and atheism the most popular religious position. In the link Jacy Anthis has given a full set of predictions to test his accuracy.

Comment author: Pat 01 May 2014 10:49:46PM *  4 points [-]

Here are my predictions (on Prediction Book):

Comment author: tog 01 May 2014 11:12:26PM 2 points [-]

Fun site! Once you register, it lets you assign probabilities to predictions others have made.

Comment author: Drayin 03 May 2014 01:44:18AM 3 points [-]

I predict:

  • utilitarianism's the most common philosophy
  • a clear majority will be non-religious, and respondents often identify with skepticism/atheism as a social movement
  • a clear majority are left wing
  • most respondents are under 30, with 50% students
  • people often heard of EA through Peter Singer

And the most significant outcome:

  • There will be many non-students without significant donations, which in my view is not a good thing at all
Comment author: kdbscott 01 May 2014 11:02:57PM 3 points [-]

Good point about LW affiliation - in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.

I'm still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it's a fun exercise so I've added some thoughts to the excel sheet.

Comment author: Drayin 03 May 2014 01:46:06AM 1 point [-]

Yes, the survey asks where you heard of it itself, and what groups you're a member of, and where you first heard of EA: LessWrong is a candidate for each. So you can make predictions for specific groups.

Comment author: thebestwecan 01 May 2014 04:21:44PM *  1 point [-]

I definitely agree LW affiliation will be a major predictor of other results. Perhaps I should have made two sets of predictions (one for LW folks, one for others). - Jacy

Comment author: Drayin 01 May 2014 06:00:09PM 3 points [-]

One thing that would be really interesting is comparing EA-LW folks with both the standard EA answers and the standard LW survey answers.

Comment author: EricHerboso 01 May 2014 07:41:50PM 1 point [-]

Just to be clear, it wouldn't be "LW affiliation"; it would be "heard of EA through LW". I'm sure there are quite a few like me who learned about LW through EA, not the other way around.

Comment author: tog 01 May 2014 08:13:31PM 2 points [-]

There are questions both about whether you're a LessWrong member and whether you first heard of EA through LessWrong, so we can get data on both.

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