= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Anders_H comments on Open Thread, May 5 - 11, 2014 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (284)
This is true, but I was talking about the prediction markets that we have within the Less Wrong community. We may be interested in predictions other than those that go into financial markets.
From what I understand, prediction markets are available at many rationalist houses and other places Less Wrong members gather. It would be great if we could link these together
As for the "tax on bullshit", it wouldn't be a tax that is paid in money, but as long as your balance is publicly linked to your Less Wrong account, it would be a tax that is paid in credibility points. I concede that maybe I should have used a better word than "tax"
What does that mean? That people make public bets against each other? I'm not sure that's enough to qualify as a "market".
First, I don't think LW karma = credibility. Second, karma is, let's say, prone to inflation :-/
These are public bets that have some features of a prediction market. People assign their probabilities to different possible outcomes, making a bet against the previous participant in the market. Participants receive "Bayes points" based on the accuracy of their predictions, and there is a scoreboard which aggregates the results from closed markets
These things are not perfect, they lack certain features of a real market. This is why I am proposing to introduce actual prediction markets
Markets work because there are strong incentives to be right and it's quite painful to be wrong. This means that you must put at risk valuable things, usually money.
If you want the prediction markets to operate using "Bayes points", these points must be valuable and their supply must be limited. In other words, they must be like money. That's... going to be a problem.