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trist comments on What do rationalists think about the afterlife? - Less Wrong
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On your last point, no. To put it colloquially, the simpler answer is more likely.
In practical terms, saying that all binary choices without evidence causes conflicts. Namely, if there's a 50/50 chance that your consciousness dissolves when you die, and a 50/50 chance that a hidden FAI captures your brain state, and a 50/50 chance that a hidden UFAI captures your brain state. That implies that in every case that a FAI captures your brain state so does a UFAI.