knb comments on Open Thread, May 19 - 25, 2014 - Less Wrong
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This just struck me: people always credit WWII as being the thing that got the US out of the great depression. We've all seen the graph (like the one at the top of this paper) where standard of living drops precipitously during the great depression then more than recovers during WWII.
How in the world did that work? Why is it that suddenly pouring huge resources out of the country into a massive utility-sink that didn't exist until the start of the war rapidly brought up the standard of living? This makes no sense to me.
The only plausible explanation I can think up is that they somehow borrowed from the future using the necessities of war as justification. I feel like that would involve a dip in the growth rate after WWII - and there is one, but it just dips back down to the trend-line not below like I would expect if they genuinely borrowed enough from the future to offset such a large downturn as the great depression. The only other thing seems to be externalities.
However this goes, this seems to be a huge argument in favor of big-government spending (if we get this much utility from the government building things that literally explode themselves without providing non-military utility, then in a time of peace, we should be able to get even more by having the government build things like high-tech infrastructure, places of beauty, peaceful scientific research, large-scale engineering projects, etc.). So should we be spending 20-40% of our GDP on peace-time government mega-projects? It's either that or this piece of common knowledge is wrong (and we all know how reliable common knowledge is!).
Or I'm wrong, of course. So what is it?
(Bonus question: why didn't WWI see a similar boost in living standards?)
I'm surprised no one has explained this yet, but this is wrong according to standard economic theory as I understand it.
The point is WWII helped the economy because we were well under our production possibilities frontier during the depression. Peace-time mega projects would only be helpful under recessed/depressed conditions, and fortunately, we now can use monetary policy to produce similar effects.
Anyway, the argument you were making seems pretty common among people who don't follow economics debates, and in fact is one of the major policy recommendations of the oddball Lyndon LaRouche cult.
Do you know of a typical measure (or component) of living standard that would have been measured for the US across both the great depression and WW2? The standard story I have heard informally is that WWII efforts did actually increase standards of living. I'm not surprised to learn that that's false, but given the level of consensus in the group-think I've encountered, I'd be interested in seeing some hard numbers. Plus, I'm interested in seeing whether there was a drop in living standards.