gwern comments on Open Thread, May 26 - June 1, 2014 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: BarbaraB 26 May 2014 07:42AM

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Comment author: BarbaraB 27 May 2014 10:04:35AM *  8 points [-]

I want to draw an illustrative axis of how probabilities of events feel like. For isntance: 1% probability - lifetime chance of dying in a car crash, 10% probability - blue eyed person in Greece, 0.01 % - occurence of four clover leaf among three clover leaves. Can you give me more of similar specific examples ? I am most interested in 0.1%, 1%, 2 %, 3% and 4%, but I will appreciate any illustrative example, even for very rare events. More illustrations for already covered percentages are also appreciated.

Comment author: gwern 28 May 2014 05:34:39PM 0 points [-]

Sounds like an xkcd comic. Maybe borrow from his charts?

Comment author: BarbaraB 03 June 2014 02:03:40PM 0 points [-]

Which xkcd comic ?

Comment author: gwern 04 June 2014 02:00:00AM 1 point [-]

One of his charts like http://blog.xkcd.com/2011/03/19/radiation-chart/ but perhaps using micromorts or another such risk unit.