common_law comments on Pascal's Mugging Solved - Less Wrong

0 Post author: common_law 27 May 2014 03:28AM

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Comment author: common_law 27 May 2014 06:34:08PM *  0 points [-]

It's accurate. But it's crucial, of course, to see why P(C) comes to dominate P(B), and I think this is what most commenters have missed. (But maybe I'm wrong about that; maybe its because of pattern matching.) As the threat increases, P(C) comes to dominate P(B) because the threat, when large enough, is evidence against the threatened event occurring.