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common_law comments on Pascal's Mugging Solved - Less Wrong
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It seems to me that you've pretty much solved the literal interpretation of the hypothetical, putting into words what everyone was already thinking.
The more relevant one is where you generated the probability and utility estimates yourself and are trying to figure out what to do about it.
I intended nothing more than to solve the literal interpretation. This isn't my beaten path. I don't intend more on the subject besides speculation about why an essentially trivial problem of "literal interpretation" has resisted articulation.