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private_messaging comments on Rationality Quotes June 2014 - Less Wrong
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The point is that the consecutively successful investment managers tend to have more clue than unsuccessful ones. Of course, the luck plays a huge role, but over ten years, if we assume that super skilled have success rate of 0.6 and low skilled have success rate of 0.4, there's 57-fold difference in 'survival'.
Let me point out that you can make very straightforward Bayesian estimates of performance/skill/alpha by starting with, say, zero-alpha prior and then updating on monthly returns.