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RichardKennaway comments on Rationality Quotes June 2014 - Less Wrong
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As somewhat of a libertarian, I tend to fall into that last group. I have to keep reminding myself that if nobody could outguess the market, then there'd be no money in trying to outguess the market, so only fools would enter it, and it would be easy to outguess.
A lot of the thread descending from here is covered by the whole of the quoted essay. I'd quote more, but I don't want to make it easy for people to just read another quote.