John_Maxwell_IV comments on Open thread, 3-8 June 2014 - Less Wrong
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http://lesswrong.com/lw/fao/voting_is_like_donating_thousands_of_dollars_to/
That's it, although checking that post and comments again I feel like it may be making an accounting error of some sort.
edit: Actually it's probably just positing excessive confidence (inspired by hindsight) in the value of getting your guy compared to the other guy.