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shminux comments on Open thread, 3-8 June 2014 - Less Wrong
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Do you think that someone can predict your behavior with maybe 80% accuracy? Like, for example, whether you would one-box or two-box, based on what you wrote? And then confidently leave the $1M box empty because they know you'd two-box? And use that fact to win a bet, for example? Seems very practical.
If I bet $1001 that I'd one-box I'd have a natural incentive to do so.
However, if the boxes were already stocked and I gain nothing for proving pseudo-Omega wrong, then two-boxing is clearly superior. Otherwise I open one empty box, have nothing, yell at pseudo-Omega for being wrong, get a shrug in response, and go to bed regretting that I'd ever heard of TDT.