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PhilGoetz comments on What should a Bayesian do given probability of proving X vs. of disproving X? - Less Wrong
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Yes, good answer, with a minor correction, since in this case P(coin came up tails) is in fact 1, not 0.5. The problem is that before I look at a marble, it is possible for doing that to prove that the coin came up tails, but not that it came up heads. And yet, the probability I should assign to the proposition that it came up heads is 0.5.